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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.